The biggest handicap for first-time keeper leaguers is that the Yahoo Big Boards, ESPN Player Raters, and all other fantasy NBA rankings are compiled with just a single season in mind. So, even in keeper leagues, a declining, 32-year-old Dirk Nowitzki will be drafted well ahead of Brook Lopez who has a whole career of Tim Duncan-like productivity ahead of him. And who can blame you?
Often ranked in the top five, it would feel wrong to let a Nowitski slip too far, but let him slip you should.
Intertemporal arbitrage isn't about taking inordinate risk early or blindly taking younger players. You should never take Derrick Favors over Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, or Chris Bosh. Especially since a guy like Favors is likely to be available to you later in the draft and Dwight Howard-type production is extremely hard to replace.
But within the same tier of talent, taking the young, rising Tyreke Evans over the aging, declining Jason Kidd allows your team to flourish in the short-term without having to sacrifice long-term production.
From a keeper league perspective, single-seaso ...
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Article written by ken park
Introducing Intertemporal Arbitrage to Rookie Fantasy NBA Keeper Leaguers
September 23rd, 2010 by ken park Leave a reply »
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