Does preseason prognostication perfectly predict actual NBA standings?
Of course not.
John Jenkins won't be coming close to 20 points per game during the regular season. You can forget about Tyler Hansbrough averaging double-digit rebounds or Jameer Nelson competing for the assist crown. The Charlotte Hornets won't remain on pace to win 72 games for very long, and the Dallas Mavericks will probably erase their goose egg in the wins column before we're too deep into the actual campaign.
But the preseason isn't meaningless. So long as you understand the necessary caveats and exercise caution as you rush to form snap judgments, you can glean some valuable information. That's the goal here as we use the FATS model to identify teams that are legitimately trending up and down.
What is FATS? Standing for factor adjusted team similarities, it's a model I developed that looks at both offensive and defensive Four Factors for a squad then compares those results to every team in NBA history. The closest matches help show how good the current unit actually is, allowing us to come up with an accurate win projecti ...
Read Full Article at Bleacher Report - NBA
Article written by Adam Fromal
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