There's a general consensus that Chris Bosh's usage will decline, and efficiency will incline now that he has to share the rock with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. But I haven't yet seen anyone try to estimate what Bosh's production will be. Without more concrete projections, it's tough to know whether or not you should take Bosh over Amar'e Stoudemire, Brook Lopez, Al Horford, and other bigs in the league. In this post I try to pin down Bosh's production for the upcoming season.
I use Kevin Garnett's transition from Minnesota to Boston as a counterfactual for Bosh's production. Like Bosh, KG also joined two other 20-point per game scorers in Paul Pierce and Ray Allen in 2007-08. Examining KG should give us a much better sense of what to expect from Bosh next season.
KG's "Decline"
KG's statistical decline is somewhat misunderstood. KG's lower statistical output in his initial season with Boston had more to do with fewer minutes played than anything else. Accounting for minutes, KG's production in Boston looks almost identical to his previous 2006-07 season in Minnesota.
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Article written by ken park
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