NBA rookies are supposed to struggle their first year in the league. The learning curve is steep, and new players are often overwhelmed with both the physical and mental hurdles of an 82-game regular season. Even future stars are often thought to go through serious adversity as they grapple with the pro game over the course of their first year.
However, upon closer examination, the assertion that future NBA stars have significant difficulties on the court as rookies is overblown. An excellent indication of how good a player can eventually become is by looking at how well he performs in his first season.
John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a catch-all statistic that is valued for both its simplicity and its bluntness. While many experts chafe at using a single statistic to define a player's value, the effectiveness of PER as an analytic tool is hard to deny. Examining a highly touted rookie's PER is a great way to soberly analyze their chances of stardom.
Since the 2002 Draft there have been 20 players picked that have gone on to make at least two All-Star games. According to b ...
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Article written by Tim Grimes
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