The standings say that the Toronto Maple Leafs still have a very good shot at the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs. History says otherwise.
Let’s start with what is happening right now. As of Tuesday, Toronto had 35 points in 31 games, which gives them a four-point lead on the Hurricanes for the final “wild card” seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
The true picture is rosier still. Toronto would be second in the Metropolitan Division, so the Capitals, Rangers and Hurricanes would all need to pass the Leafs for the team to fall out of the playoff picture. And with Tampa Bay down Steven Stamkos and only a single point ahead of Toronto, the Lightning are an eminently catchable opponent.
With all that good news, why are the Leafs in trouble? League history offers a clue.
Toronto has been outshot, on average, by a rate of 37-27 per game. It’s the second-worst shot differential in the history of the 30-team NHL; only the 2001-02 Atlanta Thrashers were worse, and they finished dead last that year.
If we broaden the scope to include more clubs, we see that a terrible shot ...
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Article written by Jonathan Willis
What History Says About the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup Playoff Hopes
December 10th, 2013 by Jonathan Willis Leave a reply »
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